Measuring Consumer Confidence – Check Their Wine Bottles

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One unfortunate side effect of the world financial turmoil is the proliferation of economic pundits manipulating statistics to underscore the credibility of their prognostications. A veritable alphabet soup of acronyms (GDP, S&P, ADR, GNP, FTSA, etc.) indicate either we haven’t hit bottom yet, we’re well on the way to recovery, future growth will be robust, or chaos and volatility are the new economic realities.

Having spent my entire career in the Hospitality Industry makes my success dependent upon people’s perception of their economic future. Levels of disposable income are largely determined by feelings about job security and  income potential.

The measure I use to gauge public perception of the economy is the PPB, or price per bottle. The average price spent on a bottle of wine is a clear indicator of relative optimism. Over the last two months, this “pundit” has seen the PPB rise 25% over levels twelve months ago.

It should also be noted that drinking better wines further increases one’s feelings of optimism and well being.

Drink well and prosper.

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